Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 28.201615 33.563463 39.432200 46.302295 54.092518 62.620173 72.628373
2025-06-22 19.557489 26.441944 34.724359 45.290072 58.267968 73.542470 92.721512
2025-06-29 15.592036 23.262543 33.172215 46.626091 64.100652 85.700258 114.050455
2025-07-06 11.588325 19.032378 29.326650 44.130887 64.348188 90.433072 125.995131
2025-07-13 9.844209 17.505892 28.702889 45.553902 69.472452 101.347186 146.042264
2025-07-20 8.421098 16.147656 28.035939 46.682399 74.076317 111.631796 165.587731
2025-07-27 7.375613 15.170967 27.744043 48.208676 79.198066 122.739082 186.609373
2025-08-03 6.440709 14.194058 27.283032 49.348878 83.720057 133.116368 206.960872
2025-08-10 5.352643 12.728284 25.811021 48.704810 85.433705 139.463069 221.809721
2025-08-17 4.633948 11.814081 25.130199 49.212630 88.851888 148.340328 240.508156
2025-08-24 3.927140 10.777213 24.083555 48.970693 91.003932 155.351173 256.672003
2025-08-31 3.168665 9.459940 22.333383 47.317789 90.709999 158.565720 267.258993
2025-09-07 2.805255 9.006347 22.266893 48.805233 95.961451 170.983511 292.820812
2025-09-14 2.248189 7.950187 20.864184 47.742679 96.895626 176.786191 308.749651
2025-09-21 1.982892 7.567222 20.788386 49.135423 102.096946 189.547922 335.803868
2025-09-28 1.486719 6.382027 18.773947 46.533329 100.037749 190.412690 344.255520
2025-10-05 1.322460 6.126588 18.813835 48.017442 105.386358 203.626269 372.639297
2025-10-12 1.162814 5.833665 18.716439 49.194110 110.212609 216.128951 400.258168
2025-10-19 1.042619 5.635230 18.817304 50.785156 115.881931 230.245260 430.896211
2025-10-26 0.919652 5.382754 18.740213 51.973466 120.831490 243.290108 460.150234
2025-11-02 0.746404 4.860237 17.864687 51.302251 122.127564 250.039063 479.207209
2025-11-09 0.638873 4.560206 17.539442 51.831481 125.784336 261.017910 505.582334
2025-11-16 0.526059 4.177361 16.908822 51.579349 127.842475 269.210067 527.478727